Target Price Playground
KLAC
$185.86
๐ข
KLAC IV: 55.4% โ LOW
(-30.8% vs 30d avg of 80.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $185.86 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $175 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.6 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $205 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$754 (3.8%) on $19,746 risked, vs +$1,914 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $18,586. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $205 by Oct 16
+$754
+3.8% on $19,746 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,246
Put floors you at $175
Break-even
$197.46
+6.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.95 / -13.9 / 27.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $149 (-20%) | -$1,792 | -$1,963 | -$2,155 | -$2,246 |
| $158 (-15%) | -$1,477 | -$1,696 | -$1,977 | -$2,246 |
| $167 (-10%) | -$1,073 | -$1,325 | -$1,673 | -$2,246 |
| $177 (-5%) | -$581 | -$849 | -$1,224 | -$2,089 |
| $182 (-2%) | -$248 | -$517 | -$888 | -$1,532 |
| $186 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$276 | -$637 | -$1,160 |
| $190 (+2%) | +$240 | -$21 | -$368 | -$788 |
| $195 (+5%) | +$635 | +$385 | +$67 | -$231 |
| $205 (+10%) โ target | +$1,386 | +$1,164 | +$909 | +$754 |
| $214 (+15%) | +$2,101 | +$1,908 | +$1,710 | +$1,628 |
| $223 (+20%) | +$2,901 | +$2,740 | +$2,597 | +$2,557 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.