Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.7% โ LOW
(-25.3% vs 30d avg of 95.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $50.0 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $360 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.57 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $340 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,457 (94.4%) on $1,543 risked, vs $-4,904 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 7.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $340 by Aug 21
+$1,457
+94.4% on $1,543 risked
Max Profit
+$1,457
If the stock โค $360 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,543
Net debit
Break-even
$374.57
-3.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.34 / -3.39 / 2.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | +$737 | +$836 | +$1,034 | +$1,457 |
| $331 (-15%) | +$548 | +$618 | +$777 | +$1,457 |
| $340 (-13%) โ target | +$454 | +$507 | +$635 | +$1,457 |
| $350 (-10%) | +$351 | +$383 | +$469 | +$1,457 |
| $370 (-5%) | +$153 | +$141 | +$135 | +$498 |
| $381 (-2%) | +$36 | -$2 | -$65 | -$669 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | -$41 | -$96 | -$196 | -$1,447 |
| $397 (+2%) | -$116 | -$187 | -$322 | -$1,543 |
| $408 (+5%) | -$226 | -$320 | -$501 | -$1,543 |
| $428 (+10%) | -$398 | -$525 | -$764 | -$1,543 |
| $447 (+15%) | -$556 | -$707 | -$979 | -$1,543 |
| $467 (+20%) | -$698 | -$865 | -$1,147 | -$1,543 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.