Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.2% โ LOW
(-39.2% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $29.8 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $335 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.58 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,778 (246.4%) on $722 risked, vs +$3,947 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 19.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $350 by Oct 16
+$1,778
+246.4% on $722 risked
Max Profit
+$1,778
If the stock โฅ $335 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$722
Net debit
Break-even
$317.22
+2.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.44 / 0.9 / -0.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$397 | -$490 | -$633 | -$722 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$255 | -$347 | -$519 | -$722 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$90 | -$167 | -$334 | -$722 |
| $295 (-5%) | +$90 | +$42 | -$80 | -$722 |
| $304 (-2%) | +$202 | +$176 | +$98 | -$722 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$277 | +$267 | +$223 | -$669 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$353 | +$358 | +$351 | -$48 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$465 | +$494 | +$543 | +$884 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$645 | +$712 | +$846 | +$1,778 |
| $350 (+13%) โ target | +$738 | +$824 | +$995 | +$1,778 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$814 | +$913 | +$1,109 | +$1,778 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$967 | +$1,089 | +$1,320 | +$1,778 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.