Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.5% โ LOW
(-24.8% vs 30d avg of 95.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.4 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $420 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.61 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$1,821 (154.5%) on $1,179 risked, vs +$4,596 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 13.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21
+$1,821
+154.5% on $1,179 risked
Max Profit
+$1,821
If the stock โฅ $420 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,179
Net debit
Break-even
$401.79
+3.28% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.84 / -0.41 / -2.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | -$689 | -$797 | -$984 | -$1,179 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$531 | -$629 | -$823 | -$1,179 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$359 | -$434 | -$603 | -$1,179 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$178 | -$220 | -$332 | -$1,179 |
| $381 (-2%) | -$68 | -$86 | -$152 | -$1,179 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | +$6 | +$4 | -$29 | -$1,179 |
| $397 (+2%) | +$80 | +$94 | +$97 | -$497 |
| $408 (+5%) | +$189 | +$228 | +$284 | +$670 |
| $428 (+10%) | +$367 | +$445 | +$585 | +$1,821 |
| $435 (+12%) โ target | +$429 | +$520 | +$688 | +$1,821 |
| $447 (+15%) | +$535 | +$648 | +$857 | +$1,821 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$692 | +$833 | +$1,090 | +$1,821 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.