Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.1% โ LOW
(-25.2% vs 30d avg of 95.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $420 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $389.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $420 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.61 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $420 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$7,357 (21.2%) on $34,643 risked, vs +$3,096 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $420. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $420 by Aug 21
+$7,357
+21.2% on $34,643 risked
Max Profit
+$7,357
If the stock โฅ $420 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,643
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$346.43
-10.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.68 / 42.07 / -66.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | -$4,555 | -$4,079 | -$3,661 | -$3,520 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$3,089 | -$2,488 | -$1,883 | -$1,575 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$1,746 | -$1,027 | -$225 | +$371 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$532 | +$290 | +$1,274 | +$2,316 |
| $381 (-2%) | +$136 | +$1,008 | +$2,085 | +$3,483 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | +$555 | +$1,456 | +$2,586 | +$4,261 |
| $397 (+2%) | +$955 | +$1,880 | +$3,055 | +$5,039 |
| $408 (+5%) | +$1,517 | +$2,472 | +$3,697 | +$6,206 |
| $420 (+8%) โ target | +$2,031 | +$3,005 | +$4,259 | +$7,357 |
| $428 (+10%) | +$2,361 | +$3,343 | +$4,606 | +$7,357 |
| $447 (+15%) | +$3,095 | +$4,080 | +$5,327 | +$7,357 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$3,728 | +$4,694 | +$5,880 | +$7,357 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.