Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
LRCX
$389.04
๐ŸŸข
LRCX IV: 71.8% โ€” LOW (-25.0% vs 30d avg of 95.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $370 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $57.9 ยท ฮ” -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $370 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.65 ยท ฮ” -0.37
P&L at Expiry Now $389 Target $370 $272 $389 $506
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If LRCX hits $370 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,409 (125.2%) on $1,925 risked, vs $-1,904 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 25.6ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if LRCX hits $370 by Aug 21
+$2,409
+125.2% on $1,925 risked
Max Profit
+$2,347
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,379
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$428.62
+10.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
88%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-4.88 / 4.93 / 13.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

LRCX Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$311 (-20%) +$209 +$334 +$503 +$456
$331 (-15%) +$188 +$338 +$583 +$856
$350 (-10%) +$141 +$304 +$595 +$1,431
$370 (-5%) โ† target +$70 +$229 +$526 +$2,216
$381 (-2%) +$21 +$171 +$453 +$1,625
$389 (0%) โ† spot -$17 +$125 +$389 +$1,255
$397 (+2%) -$58 +$75 +$317 +$914
$408 (+5%) -$122 -$8 +$193 +$456
$428 (+10%) -$239 -$159 -$41 -$174
$447 (+15%) -$363 -$321 -$291 -$659
$467 (+20%) -$489 -$487 -$538 -$1,024
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.