Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.7% โ LOW
(-25.3% vs 30d avg of 95.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.1 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21: the long call returns $-810 (-15.3%) on $5,310 risked, vs +$4,596 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21
$-810
-15.3% on $5,310 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,310
Premium paid
Break-even
$443.10
+13.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.09 / -41.89 / 63.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | -$3,771 | -$4,359 | -$4,968 | -$5,310 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$3,131 | -$3,834 | -$4,639 | -$5,310 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$2,354 | -$3,152 | -$4,128 | -$5,310 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$1,442 | -$2,308 | -$3,409 | -$5,310 |
| $381 (-2%) | -$831 | -$1,725 | -$2,873 | -$5,310 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | -$398 | -$1,305 | -$2,473 | -$5,310 |
| $397 (+2%) | +$54 | -$861 | -$2,038 | -$4,628 |
| $408 (+5%) | +$768 | -$152 | -$1,326 | -$3,461 |
| $428 (+10%) | +$2,046 | +$1,138 | +$10 | -$1,516 |
| $435 (+12%) โ target | +$2,535 | +$1,637 | +$536 | -$810 |
| $447 (+15%) | +$3,426 | +$2,549 | +$1,506 | +$430 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$4,894 | +$4,064 | +$3,129 | +$2,375 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.