Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.5% โ LOW
(-24.8% vs 30d avg of 95.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $47.8 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $340 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$220 (4.6%) on $4,780 risked, vs $-4,904 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $340 by Aug 21
+$220
+4.6% on $4,780 risked
Max Profit
+$34,220
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,780
Premium paid
Break-even
$342.20
-12.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.01 / -39.02 / 63.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | +$4,315 | +$3,831 | +$3,328 | +$3,097 |
| $331 (-15%) | +$3,007 | +$2,408 | +$1,710 | +$1,152 |
| $340 (-13%) โ target | +$2,429 | +$1,782 | +$997 | +$220 |
| $350 (-10%) | +$1,836 | +$1,143 | +$273 | -$794 |
| $370 (-5%) | +$803 | +$40 | -$955 | -$2,739 |
| $381 (-2%) | +$246 | -$544 | -$1,587 | -$3,906 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | -$99 | -$902 | -$1,965 | -$4,684 |
| $397 (+2%) | -$425 | -$1,237 | -$2,308 | -$4,780 |
| $408 (+5%) | -$879 | -$1,694 | -$2,763 | -$4,780 |
| $428 (+10%) | -$1,545 | -$2,349 | -$3,371 | -$4,780 |
| $447 (+15%) | -$2,111 | -$2,883 | -$3,819 | -$4,780 |
| $467 (+20%) | -$2,587 | -$3,311 | -$4,140 | -$4,780 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.