Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.5% โ LOW
(-24.8% vs 30d avg of 95.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $389.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$4,596 (11.8%) on $38,904 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $435 by Aug 21
+$4,596
+11.8% on $38,904 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$38,904
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$389.04
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | -$7,781 | -$7,781 | -$7,781 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$5,836 | -$5,836 | -$5,836 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$3,890 | -$3,890 | -$3,890 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$1,945 | -$1,945 | -$1,945 |
| $381 (-2%) | -$778 | -$778 | -$778 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $397 (+2%) | +$778 | +$778 | +$778 |
| $408 (+5%) | +$1,945 | +$1,945 | +$1,945 |
| $428 (+10%) | +$3,890 | +$3,890 | +$3,890 |
| $435 (+12%) โ target | +$4,596 | +$4,596 | +$4,596 |
| $447 (+15%) | +$5,836 | +$5,836 | +$5,836 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$7,781 | +$7,781 | +$7,781 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.