Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.7% โ LOW
(-25.3% vs 30d avg of 95.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $389.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.65 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $430 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$231 (0.5%) on $42,769 risked, vs +$4,096 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $38,904.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $430 by Aug 21
+$231
+0.5% on $42,769 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$5,769
Put floors you at $370
Break-even
$427.69
+9.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.21 / -36.79 / 61.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | -$4,082 | -$4,641 | -$5,284 | -$5,769 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$3,321 | -$3,976 | -$4,794 | -$5,769 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$2,415 | -$3,140 | -$4,087 | -$5,769 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$1,371 | -$2,137 | -$3,150 | -$5,769 |
| $381 (-2%) | -$683 | -$1,459 | -$2,481 | -$4,643 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | -$199 | -$976 | -$1,993 | -$3,865 |
| $397 (+2%) | +$303 | -$471 | -$1,473 | -$3,087 |
| $408 (+5%) | +$1,090 | +$327 | -$639 | -$1,920 |
| $430 (+11%) โ target | +$2,638 | +$1,914 | +$1,048 | +$231 |
| $447 (+15%) | +$3,971 | +$3,292 | +$2,527 | +$1,971 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$5,536 | +$4,916 | +$4,270 | +$3,916 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.