Target Price Playground
LRCX
$389.04
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.8% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 95.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.1 ยท ฮ 0.57
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $50.0 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $445 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-4,810 (-46.7%) on $10,310 risked, vs +$5,596 (14.4%) for 100 shares on $38,904. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $445 by Aug 21
$-4,810
-46.7% on $10,310 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$10,310
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$286.90
-26.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.47 / -80.84 / 127.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $311 (-20%) | +$351 | -$730 | -$1,851 | -$2,433 |
| $331 (-15%) | -$314 | -$1,623 | -$3,135 | -$4,378 |
| $350 (-10%) | -$704 | -$2,202 | -$4,058 | -$6,324 |
| $370 (-5%) | -$823 | -$2,458 | -$4,564 | -$8,269 |
| $381 (-2%) | -$767 | -$2,458 | -$4,659 | -$9,436 |
| $389 (0%) โ spot | -$680 | -$2,397 | -$4,635 | -$10,214 |
| $397 (+2%) | -$554 | -$2,287 | -$4,544 | -$9,628 |
| $408 (+5%) | -$293 | -$2,035 | -$4,287 | -$8,461 |
| $428 (+10%) | +$318 | -$1,401 | -$3,561 | -$6,516 |
| $445 (+14%) โ target | +$1,020 | -$645 | -$2,660 | -$4,810 |
| $467 (+20%) | +$2,121 | +$559 | -$1,216 | -$2,625 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.