Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.83 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $365 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.5 ยท ฮ -0.23
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $350 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,867 (164.8%) on $1,133 risked, vs $-4,620 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 14.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $350 by Aug 21
+$1,867
+164.8% on $1,133 risked
Max Profit
+$1,867
If the stock โค $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,133
Net debit
Break-even
$383.67
-3.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-21.18 / -2.6 / 15.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | +$1,579 | +$1,697 | +$1,821 | +$1,867 |
| $337 (-15%) | +$1,295 | +$1,437 | +$1,653 | +$1,867 |
| $350 (-12%) โ target | +$1,041 | +$1,167 | +$1,392 | +$1,867 |
| $357 (-10%) | +$900 | +$1,007 | +$1,210 | +$1,867 |
| $376 (-5%) | +$445 | +$465 | +$504 | +$728 |
| $388 (-2%) | +$173 | +$135 | +$52 | -$461 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$72 | -$222 | -$1,133 |
| $404 (+2%) | -$162 | -$262 | -$460 | -$1,133 |
| $416 (+5%) | -$380 | -$508 | -$735 | -$1,133 |
| $436 (+10%) | -$667 | -$804 | -$995 | -$1,133 |
| $456 (+15%) | -$864 | -$977 | -$1,095 | -$1,133 |
| $475 (+20%) | -$987 | -$1,066 | -$1,124 | -$1,133 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.