Target Price Playground
MAR
$356.60
๐ข
MAR IV: 25.5% โ LOW
(-63.3% vs 30d avg of 69.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.92 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $400 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$1,892 (170.7%) on $1,108 risked, vs +$4,340 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $35,660. Options give 14.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $400 by Oct 16
+$1,892
+170.7% on $1,108 risked
Max Profit
+$1,892
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,108
Net debit
Break-even
$366.08
+2.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
29.28 / -3.25 / 8.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$1,083 | -$1,102 | -$1,108 | -$1,108 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$1,009 | -$1,067 | -$1,104 | -$1,108 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$821 | -$934 | -$1,062 | -$1,108 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$479 | -$610 | -$834 | -$1,108 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$203 | -$310 | -$522 | -$1,108 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$76 | -$236 | -$948 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$212 | +$175 | +$95 | -$235 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$530 | +$558 | +$616 | +$835 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$1,010 | +$1,121 | +$1,333 | +$1,892 |
| $400 (+12%) โ target | +$1,185 | +$1,313 | +$1,539 | +$1,892 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$1,376 | +$1,509 | +$1,713 | +$1,892 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$1,614 | +$1,725 | +$1,847 | +$1,892 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.