Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-58.0% vs 30d avg of 73.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.07 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $445 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,248 (179.6%) on $1,252 risked, vs +$4,880 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 14.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $445 by Aug 21
+$2,248
+179.6% on $1,252 risked
Max Profit
+$2,248
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,252
Net debit
Break-even
$407.52
+2.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
27.82 / -5.06 / 4.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | -$1,165 | -$1,221 | -$1,250 | -$1,252 |
| $337 (-15%) | -$1,023 | -$1,133 | -$1,230 | -$1,252 |
| $357 (-10%) | -$769 | -$920 | -$1,123 | -$1,252 |
| $376 (-5%) | -$394 | -$539 | -$795 | -$1,252 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$122 | -$233 | -$452 | -$1,252 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$70 | -$6 | -$168 | -$1,132 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$268 | +$231 | +$147 | -$340 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$565 | +$590 | +$637 | +$849 |
| $436 (+10%) | +$1,028 | +$1,143 | +$1,364 | +$2,248 |
| $445 (+12%) โ target | +$1,218 | +$1,362 | +$1,622 | +$2,248 |
| $456 (+15%) | +$1,415 | +$1,578 | +$1,849 | +$2,248 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$1,709 | +$1,875 | +$2,096 | +$2,248 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.