Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.14 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $445 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$2,241 (178.0%) on $1,259 risked, vs +$4,880 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $445 by Aug 21
+$2,241
+178.0% on $1,259 risked
Max Profit
+$2,241
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,259
Net debit
Break-even
$407.59
+2.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.02 / -4.57 / 4.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | -$1,170 | -$1,227 | -$1,257 | -$1,259 |
| $337 (-15%) | -$1,028 | -$1,138 | -$1,236 | -$1,259 |
| $357 (-10%) | -$773 | -$925 | -$1,128 | -$1,259 |
| $376 (-5%) | -$399 | -$543 | -$800 | -$1,259 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$128 | -$238 | -$457 | -$1,259 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$64 | -$12 | -$173 | -$1,139 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$261 | +$224 | +$140 | -$347 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$557 | +$582 | +$629 | +$842 |
| $436 (+10%) | +$1,018 | +$1,134 | +$1,355 | +$2,241 |
| $445 (+12%) โ target | +$1,209 | +$1,352 | +$1,613 | +$2,241 |
| $456 (+15%) | +$1,405 | +$1,568 | +$1,839 | +$2,241 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$1,699 | +$1,865 | +$2,087 | +$2,241 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.