Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MAR
$396.20
๐ŸŸข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ€” LOW (-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $415 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $365 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.5 ยท ฮ” -0.23
P&L at Expiry Now $396 Target $415 $277 $396 $515
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MAR hits $415 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$750 (2.1%) on $-750 credit (max loss $35,750), vs +$1,880 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 0.4ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MAR hits $415 by Aug 21
+$750
+2.1% on $35,750 max loss
Max Profit
+$750
If the stock โ‰ฅ $365 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$35,750
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$357.50
-9.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
22.91 / 11.27 / -50.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MAR Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$317 (-20%) -$4,142 -$4,050 -$3,996 -$4,054
$337 (-15%) -$2,642 -$2,435 -$2,203 -$2,073
$357 (-10%) -$1,448 -$1,162 -$782 -$92
$376 (-5%) -$579 -$280 +$112 +$750
$388 (-2%) -$201 +$76 +$414 +$750
$396 (0%) โ† spot -$0 +$253 +$541 +$750
$404 (+2%) +$164 +$390 +$625 +$750
$415 (+5%) โ† target +$339 +$524 +$692 +$750
$436 (+10%) +$553 +$665 +$739 +$750
$456 (+15%) +$657 +$720 +$748 +$750
$475 (+20%) +$708 +$740 +$750 +$750
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.