Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $396.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $430 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$4,435 (11.5%) on $38,565 risked, vs +$3,380 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $430 by Aug 21
+$4,435
+11.5% on $38,565 risked
Max Profit
+$4,435
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,565
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$385.65
-2.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
70.11 / 14.14 / -61.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | -$6,891 | -$6,873 | -$6,869 | -$6,869 |
| $337 (-15%) | -$4,964 | -$4,909 | -$4,889 | -$4,888 |
| $357 (-10%) | -$3,120 | -$2,991 | -$2,916 | -$2,907 |
| $376 (-5%) | -$1,422 | -$1,186 | -$987 | -$926 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$501 | -$194 | +$109 | +$263 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$64 | +$415 | +$794 | +$1,055 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$588 | +$978 | +$1,429 | +$1,847 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$1,290 | +$1,727 | +$2,264 | +$3,036 |
| $430 (+9%) โ target | +$1,989 | +$2,453 | +$3,039 | +$4,435 |
| $436 (+10%) | +$2,239 | +$2,706 | +$3,293 | +$4,435 |
| $456 (+15%) | +$2,927 | +$3,368 | +$3,886 | +$4,435 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$3,394 | +$3,773 | +$4,165 | +$4,435 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.