Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.8% โ LOW
(-58.6% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $395 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.22 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $375 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.49 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $375 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,304 (111.1%) on $1,174 risked, vs $-2,120 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 20.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $375 by Aug 21
+$1,304
+111.1% on $1,174 risked
Max Profit
+$1,277
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,172
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$398.15
+0.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.8 / 1.51 / 21.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | +$673 | +$711 | +$725 | +$698 |
| $337 (-15%) | +$608 | +$684 | +$763 | +$739 |
| $357 (-10%) | +$471 | +$571 | +$725 | +$905 |
| $375 (-5%) โ target | +$278 | +$367 | +$524 | +$1,305 |
| $388 (-2%) | +$108 | +$169 | +$273 | +$481 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | +$39 | +$98 | +$86 |
| $404 (+2%) | -$109 | -$95 | -$84 | -$238 |
| $416 (+5%) | -$273 | -$293 | -$348 | -$602 |
| $436 (+10%) | -$524 | -$588 | -$707 | -$952 |
| $456 (+15%) | -$731 | -$813 | -$938 | -$1,099 |
| $475 (+20%) | -$887 | -$967 | -$1,065 | -$1,152 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.