Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.14 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $445 by Aug 21: the long call returns +$2,686 (116.1%) on $2,314 risked, vs +$4,880 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 9.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $445 by Aug 21
+$2,686
+116.1% on $2,314 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,314
Premium paid
Break-even
$418.14
+5.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.91 / -18.71 / 65.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | -$2,204 | -$2,278 | -$2,312 | -$2,314 |
| $337 (-15%) | -$2,007 | -$2,173 | -$2,290 | -$2,314 |
| $357 (-10%) | -$1,615 | -$1,896 | -$2,174 | -$2,314 |
| $376 (-5%) | -$957 | -$1,338 | -$1,793 | -$2,314 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$419 | -$836 | -$1,358 | -$2,314 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$428 | -$967 | -$2,194 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$466 | +$38 | -$496 | -$1,402 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$1,248 | +$836 | +$346 | -$213 |
| $436 (+10%) | +$2,742 | +$2,390 | +$2,024 | +$1,768 |
| $445 (+12%) โ target | +$3,501 | +$3,183 | +$2,876 | +$2,686 |
| $456 (+15%) | +$4,421 | +$4,144 | +$3,896 | +$3,749 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$6,228 | +$6,016 | +$5,846 | +$5,730 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.