Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.83 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $350 by Aug 21: the long put returns +$2,617 (138.9%) on $1,883 risked, vs $-4,620 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 11.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $350 by Aug 21
+$2,617
+138.9% on $1,883 risked
Max Profit
+$37,617
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,883
Premium paid
Break-even
$376.17
-5.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.09 / -13.88 / 65.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | +$5,721 | +$5,748 | +$5,816 | +$5,921 |
| $337 (-15%) | +$3,936 | +$3,873 | +$3,857 | +$3,940 |
| $350 (-12%) โ target | +$2,849 | +$2,708 | +$2,592 | +$2,617 |
| $357 (-10%) | +$2,348 | +$2,168 | +$1,992 | +$1,959 |
| $376 (-5%) | +$1,024 | +$745 | +$392 | -$22 |
| $388 (-2%) | +$373 | +$58 | -$362 | -$1,211 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$325 | -$763 | -$1,883 |
| $404 (+2%) | -$326 | -$652 | -$1,084 | -$1,883 |
| $416 (+5%) | -$733 | -$1,042 | -$1,431 | -$1,883 |
| $436 (+10%) | -$1,220 | -$1,470 | -$1,734 | -$1,883 |
| $456 (+15%) | -$1,521 | -$1,697 | -$1,843 | -$1,883 |
| $475 (+20%) | -$1,695 | -$1,806 | -$1,874 | -$1,883 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.