Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $396.2 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $375 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.54 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $435 by Aug 21: the protective put returns +$2,826 (6.9%) on $40,674 risked, vs +$3,880 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $435 by Aug 21
+$2,826
+6.9% on $40,674 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,174
Put floors you at $375
Break-even
$406.74
+2.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
70.5 / -12.65 / 57.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | -$3,214 | -$3,260 | -$3,259 | -$3,174 |
| $337 (-15%) | -$2,850 | -$3,010 | -$3,161 | -$3,174 |
| $357 (-10%) | -$2,211 | -$2,473 | -$2,803 | -$3,174 |
| $376 (-5%) | -$1,258 | -$1,567 | -$1,983 | -$3,035 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$537 | -$842 | -$1,240 | -$1,846 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$291 | -$653 | -$1,054 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$579 | +$309 | -$6 | -$262 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$1,514 | +$1,285 | +$1,049 | +$927 |
| $435 (+10%) โ target | +$3,142 | +$2,984 | +$2,858 | +$2,826 |
| $456 (+15%) | +$5,042 | +$4,948 | +$4,895 | +$4,889 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$6,942 | +$6,891 | +$6,871 | +$6,870 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.