Target Price Playground
MAR
$396.20
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.8% โ LOW
(-58.6% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.07 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $395 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.77 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $455 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns +$1,815 (43.4%) on $4,185 risked, vs +$5,880 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $39,620. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $455 by Aug 21
+$1,815
+43.4% on $4,185 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,185
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$436.85
+10.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.82 / -32.48 / 130.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $317 (-20%) | +$3,527 | +$3,481 | +$3,517 | +$3,620 |
| $337 (-15%) | +$1,936 | +$1,709 | +$1,578 | +$1,639 |
| $357 (-10%) | +$737 | +$279 | -$172 | -$342 |
| $376 (-5%) | +$68 | -$590 | -$1,395 | -$2,323 |
| $388 (-2%) | -$45 | -$775 | -$1,714 | -$3,512 |
| $396 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$750 | -$1,725 | -$4,064 |
| $404 (+2%) | +$140 | -$611 | -$1,575 | -$3,272 |
| $416 (+5%) | +$516 | -$202 | -$1,077 | -$2,083 |
| $436 (+10%) | +$1,525 | +$927 | +$299 | -$102 |
| $455 (+15%) โ target | +$2,858 | +$2,402 | +$2,005 | +$1,816 |
| $475 (+20%) | +$4,541 | +$4,220 | +$3,984 | +$3,860 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.