Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
🟢
MAR IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $361.28 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $390 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.5 · Δ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $390 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$3,422 (9.6%) on $35,578 risked, vs +$2,872 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $36,128. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $390 by Dec 18
+$3,422
+9.6% on $35,578 risked
Max Profit
+$3,422
If the stock ≥ $390 at expiry
Max Loss
−$35,578
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$355.78
-1.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.61 / 10.29 / -59.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | -$6,690 | -$6,678 | -$6,676 | -$6,676 |
| $307 (-15%) | -$4,923 | -$4,882 | -$4,869 | -$4,869 |
| $325 (-10%) | -$3,228 | -$3,124 | -$3,068 | -$3,063 |
| $343 (-5%) | -$1,667 | -$1,464 | -$1,300 | -$1,256 |
| $354 (-2%) | -$824 | -$556 | -$293 | -$173 |
| $361 (0%) ← spot | -$309 | +$2 | +$335 | +$550 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$165 | +$513 | +$915 | +$1,273 |
| $379 (+5%) | +$794 | +$1,184 | +$1,666 | +$2,356 |
| $390 (+8%) ← target | +$1,318 | +$1,728 | +$2,247 | +$3,422 |
| $397 (+10%) | +$1,627 | +$2,039 | +$2,557 | +$3,422 |
| $415 (+15%) | +$2,208 | +$2,590 | +$3,028 | +$3,422 |
| $434 (+20%) | +$2,586 | +$2,906 | +$3,223 | +$3,422 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.