Target Price Playground
MAR
$397.78
๐ข
MAR IV: 30.9% โ LOW
(-57.0% vs 30d avg of 71.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $397.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $430 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$4,277 (11.0%) on $38,723 risked, vs +$3,222 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $39,778. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $430 by Aug 21
+$4,277
+11.0% on $38,723 risked
Max Profit
+$4,277
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,723
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$387.23
-2.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
70.11 / 14.14 / -61.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $318 (-20%) | -$6,925 | -$6,905 | -$6,901 | -$6,901 |
| $338 (-15%) | -$4,994 | -$4,935 | -$4,913 | -$4,912 |
| $358 (-10%) | -$3,151 | -$3,015 | -$2,934 | -$2,923 |
| $378 (-5%) | -$1,459 | -$1,215 | -$1,004 | -$934 |
| $390 (-2%) | -$546 | -$230 | +$88 | +$259 |
| $398 (0%) โ spot | +$14 | +$373 | +$767 | +$1,055 |
| $406 (+2%) | +$531 | +$929 | +$1,393 | +$1,851 |
| $418 (+5%) | +$1,223 | +$1,664 | +$2,210 | +$3,044 |
| $430 (+8%) โ target | +$1,831 | +$2,295 | +$2,881 | +$4,277 |
| $438 (+10%) | +$2,151 | +$2,618 | +$3,203 | +$4,277 |
| $457 (+15%) | +$2,820 | +$3,256 | +$3,765 | +$4,277 |
| $477 (+20%) | +$3,272 | +$3,644 | +$4,023 | +$4,277 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.