Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $44.7 ยท ฮ -0.38
SHORT PUT ยท $285 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.2 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $275 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$1,150 (85.1%) on $1,350 risked, vs $-3,558 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 7.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $275 by Aug 21
+$1,150
+85.1% on $1,350 risked
Max Profit
+$1,150
If the stock โค $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,350
Net debit
Break-even
$296.50
-4.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-4.92 / -7.66 / 3.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | +$488 | +$553 | +$695 | +$1,150 |
| $264 (-15%) | +$351 | +$391 | +$492 | +$1,150 |
| $275 (-11%) โ target | +$252 | +$272 | +$332 | +$1,150 |
| $280 (-10%) | +$212 | +$222 | +$265 | +$1,150 |
| $295 (-5%) | +$73 | +$52 | +$28 | +$145 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$9 | -$48 | -$113 | -$787 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$62 | -$114 | -$204 | -$1,350 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$115 | -$178 | -$293 | -$1,350 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$192 | -$271 | -$420 | -$1,350 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$314 | -$418 | -$612 | -$1,350 |
| $357 (+15%) | -$428 | -$551 | -$777 | -$1,350 |
| $373 (+20%) | -$533 | -$671 | -$913 | -$1,350 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.