Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.45 ยท ฮ 0.62
SHORT CALL ยท $335 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.28 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $350 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$283 (12.8%) on $2,217 risked, vs +$3,942 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $350 by Aug 21
+$283
+12.8% on $2,217 risked
Max Profit
+$283
If the stock โฅ $335 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,217
Net debit
Break-even
$332.17
+6.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.1 / -4.77 / -0.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$1,736 | -$1,815 | -$1,969 | -$2,217 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$1,618 | -$1,682 | -$1,827 | -$2,217 |
| $280 (-10%) | -$1,493 | -$1,537 | -$1,650 | -$2,217 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$1,365 | -$1,383 | -$1,449 | -$2,217 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$1,287 | -$1,289 | -$1,320 | -$2,217 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$1,236 | -$1,226 | -$1,233 | -$2,159 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$1,185 | -$1,163 | -$1,145 | -$1,538 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$1,109 | -$1,070 | -$1,014 | -$606 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$986 | -$919 | -$804 | +$283 |
| $350 (+13%) โ target | -$921 | -$841 | -$697 | +$283 |
| $357 (+15%) | -$868 | -$776 | -$609 | +$283 |
| $373 (+20%) | -$756 | -$643 | -$436 | +$283 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.