Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $310.58 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $335 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.28 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $335 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$6,170 (22.6%) on $27,330 risked, vs +$2,442 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $335 by Aug 21
+$6,170
+22.6% on $27,330 risked
Max Profit
+$6,170
If the stock โฅ $335 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$27,330
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$273.30
-12.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
49.86 / 37.44 / -51.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$3,794 | -$3,261 | -$2,735 | -$2,484 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$2,712 | -$2,079 | -$1,390 | -$931 |
| $280 (-10%) | -$1,720 | -$996 | -$150 | +$622 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$816 | -$16 | +$968 | +$2,175 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$316 | +$522 | +$1,575 | +$3,107 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$860 | +$1,952 | +$3,728 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$303 | +$1,182 | +$2,307 | +$4,349 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$734 | +$1,636 | +$2,799 | +$5,281 |
| $335 (+8%) โ target | +$1,118 | +$2,036 | +$3,222 | +$6,170 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$1,389 | +$2,315 | +$3,510 | +$6,170 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$1,970 | +$2,904 | +$4,095 | +$6,170 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$2,484 | +$3,410 | +$4,567 | +$6,170 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.