Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MRVL
$310.58
๐ŸŸข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ€” LOW (-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $295 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $56.1 ยท ฮ” -0.37
SHORT PUT ยท $295 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.08 ยท ฮ” -0.36
P&L at Expiry Now $311 Target $295 $217 $311 $404
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MRVL hits $295 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,156 (107.7%) on $2,002 risked, vs $-1,558 (-5.0%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 21.5ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MRVL hits $295 by Aug 21
+$2,156
+107.7% on $2,002 risked
Max Profit
+$2,121
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,071
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$350.83
+12.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
89%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-0.17 / -0.9 / 11.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MRVL Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$248 (-20%) -$261 -$140 +$41 +$90
$264 (-15%) -$266 -$126 +$112 +$497
$280 (-10%) -$286 -$137 +$134 +$1,033
$295 (-5%) โ† target -$322 -$173 +$105 +$1,700
$304 (-2%) -$350 -$206 +$63 +$1,231
$311 (0%) โ† spot -$371 -$232 +$26 +$947
$317 (+2%) -$394 -$261 -$17 +$682
$326 (+5%) -$432 -$310 -$93 +$320
$342 (+10%) -$501 -$402 -$242 -$194
$357 (+15%) -$576 -$505 -$409 -$608
$373 (+20%) -$657 -$613 -$582 -$937
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.