Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.45 ยท ฮ 0.62
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $350 by Aug 21: the long call returns $-1,945 (-32.7%) on $5,945 risked, vs +$3,942 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $350 by Aug 21
$-1,945
-32.7% on $5,945 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,945
Premium paid
Break-even
$369.45
+18.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.24 / -42.2 / 50.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$4,155 | -$4,766 | -$5,447 | -$5,945 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$3,564 | -$4,262 | -$5,095 | -$5,945 |
| $280 (-10%) | -$2,879 | -$3,647 | -$4,606 | -$5,945 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$2,101 | -$2,920 | -$3,970 | -$5,945 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$1,592 | -$2,432 | -$3,516 | -$5,945 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$1,236 | -$2,086 | -$3,185 | -$5,887 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$867 | -$1,724 | -$2,831 | -$5,266 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$290 | -$1,153 | -$2,260 | -$4,334 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$732 | -$128 | -$1,208 | -$2,781 |
| $350 (+13%) โ target | +$1,310 | +$459 | -$595 | -$1,945 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$1,821 | +$979 | -$46 | -$1,228 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$2,971 | +$2,159 | +$1,208 | +$325 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.