Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $310.58 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $295 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.08 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $340 by Aug 21: the protective put returns $-666 (-1.9%) on $34,666 risked, vs +$2,942 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $340 by Aug 21
$-666
-1.9% on $34,666 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$5,166
Put floors you at $295
Break-even
$346.66
+11.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.52 / -32.05 / 48.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$3,244 | -$3,818 | -$4,509 | -$5,166 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$2,574 | -$3,221 | -$4,043 | -$5,166 |
| $280 (-10%) | -$1,806 | -$2,506 | -$3,423 | -$5,166 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$946 | -$1,678 | -$2,647 | -$5,161 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$388 | -$1,131 | -$2,109 | -$4,229 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$746 | -$1,723 | -$3,608 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$400 | -$345 | -$1,315 | -$2,987 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$1,024 | +$283 | -$666 | -$2,055 |
| $340 (+9%) โ target | +$2,001 | +$1,276 | +$377 | -$666 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$3,278 | +$2,586 | +$1,771 | +$1,051 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$4,492 | +$3,839 | +$3,112 | +$2,604 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.