Target Price Playground
MRVL
$310.58
๐ข
MRVL IV: 86.4% โ LOW
(-28.3% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $310 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $59.45 ยท ฮ 0.62
LONG PUT ยท $310 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $44.7 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $355 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-5,915 (-56.8%) on $10,415 risked, vs +$4,442 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $31,058. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $355 by Aug 21
$-5,915
-56.8% on $10,415 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$10,415
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$414.15
+33.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.26 / -80.9 / 101.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$924 | -$2,067 | -$3,348 | -$4,261 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$1,297 | -$2,613 | -$4,198 | -$5,814 |
| $280 (-10%) | -$1,479 | -$2,934 | -$4,773 | -$7,367 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$1,476 | -$3,034 | -$5,053 | -$8,920 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$1,390 | -$2,990 | -$5,078 | -$9,852 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$1,299 | -$2,919 | -$5,037 | -$10,357 |
| $317 (+2%) | -$1,182 | -$2,817 | -$4,950 | -$9,736 |
| $326 (+5%) | -$959 | -$2,605 | -$4,739 | -$8,804 |
| $342 (+10%) | -$469 | -$2,108 | -$4,188 | -$7,251 |
| $355 (+14%) โ target | +$62 | -$1,549 | -$3,537 | -$5,915 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$904 | -$641 | -$2,462 | -$4,145 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.