Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.3% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1000 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1130 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $178.0 ยท ฮ -0.4
SHORT PUT ยท $1040 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $132.35 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1000 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$4,435 (97.2%) on $4,565 risked, vs $-13,399 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 8.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1000. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1000 by Aug 21
+$4,435
+97.2% on $4,565 risked
Max Profit
+$4,435
If the stock โค $1040 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$4,565
Net debit
Break-even
$1084.35
-4.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-7.59 / -11.69 / 8.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | +$2,047 | +$2,278 | +$2,789 | +$4,435 |
| $964 (-15%) | +$1,551 | +$1,693 | +$2,055 | +$4,435 |
| $1000 (-12%) โ target | +$1,230 | +$1,305 | +$1,538 | +$4,435 |
| $1021 (-10%) | +$1,046 | +$1,082 | +$1,232 | +$4,435 |
| $1077 (-5%) | +$545 | +$468 | +$376 | +$706 |
| $1111 (-2%) | +$250 | +$106 | -$132 | -$2,696 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | +$56 | -$131 | -$462 | -$4,565 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$134 | -$363 | -$783 | -$4,565 |
| $1191 (+5%) | -$411 | -$700 | -$1,241 | -$4,565 |
| $1247 (+10%) | -$852 | -$1,228 | -$1,932 | -$4,565 |
| $1304 (+15%) | -$1,263 | -$1,709 | -$2,523 | -$4,565 |
| $1361 (+20%) | -$1,641 | -$2,140 | -$3,011 | -$4,565 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.