Target Price Playground
MU
$974.33
๐ข
MU IV: 67.2% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 102.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1090 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $970 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $107.61 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $1050 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $80.0 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1090 by Oct 16: the bull call spread returns +$5,239 (189.8%) on $2,761 risked, vs +$11,567 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $97,433. Options give 15.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1090. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1090 by Oct 16
+$5,239
+189.8% on $2,761 risked
Max Profit
+$5,239
If the stock โฅ $1050 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,761
Net debit
Break-even
$997.61
+2.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.11 / -2.85 / -6.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $779 (-20%) | -$1,541 | -$1,832 | -$2,332 | -$2,761 |
| $828 (-15%) | -$1,101 | -$1,370 | -$1,916 | -$2,761 |
| $877 (-10%) | -$610 | -$819 | -$1,309 | -$2,761 |
| $926 (-5%) | -$87 | -$206 | -$536 | -$2,761 |
| $955 (-2%) | +$234 | +$180 | -$15 | -$2,761 |
| $974 (0%) โ spot | +$449 | +$440 | +$347 | -$2,328 |
| $994 (+2%) | +$664 | +$700 | +$713 | -$379 |
| $1023 (+5%) | +$982 | +$1,087 | +$1,260 | +$2,544 |
| $1072 (+10%) | +$1,495 | +$1,710 | +$2,129 | +$5,239 |
| $1090 (+12%) โ target | +$1,681 | +$1,933 | +$2,431 | +$5,239 |
| $1120 (+15%) | +$1,980 | +$2,288 | +$2,899 | +$5,239 |
| $1169 (+20%) | +$2,427 | +$2,809 | +$3,540 | +$5,239 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.