Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.3% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1270 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1130 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $200.59 ยท ฮ 0.6
SHORT CALL ยท $1220 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $162.99 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1270 by Aug 21: the bull call spread returns +$5,240 (139.4%) on $3,760 risked, vs +$13,601 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 11.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1270 by Aug 21
+$5,240
+139.4% on $3,760 risked
Max Profit
+$5,240
If the stock โฅ $1220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,760
Net debit
Break-even
$1167.60
+2.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.22 / -0.67 / -7.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$2,019 | -$2,302 | -$2,858 | -$3,760 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$1,590 | -$1,820 | -$2,339 | -$3,760 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$1,137 | -$1,292 | -$1,698 | -$3,760 |
| $1077 (-5%) | -$673 | -$735 | -$966 | -$3,760 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$393 | -$395 | -$499 | -$3,760 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | -$207 | -$167 | -$183 | -$3,361 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$22 | +$60 | +$134 | -$1,093 |
| $1191 (+5%) | +$252 | +$396 | +$607 | +$2,309 |
| $1247 (+10%) | +$697 | +$941 | +$1,366 | +$5,240 |
| $1270 (+12%) โ target | +$870 | +$1,151 | +$1,653 | +$5,240 |
| $1304 (+15%) | +$1,123 | +$1,457 | +$2,065 | +$5,240 |
| $1361 (+20%) | +$1,525 | +$1,937 | +$2,686 | +$5,240 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.