Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $89.22 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $1130 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $58.08 · Δ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1170 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$4,886 (156.9%) on $3,114 risked, vs +$12,444 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 13.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1170 by Dec 18
+$4,886
+156.9% on $3,114 risked
Max Profit
+$4,886
If the stock ≥ $1130 at expiry
Max Loss
−$3,114
Net debit
Break-even
$1081.14
+3.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
13.77 / -1.57 / 14.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | -$2,162 | -$2,474 | -$2,897 | -$3,114 |
| $889 (-15%) | -$1,706 | -$2,029 | -$2,575 | -$3,114 |
| $941 (-10%) | -$1,168 | -$1,448 | -$2,012 | -$3,114 |
| $993 (-5%) | -$572 | -$759 | -$1,197 | -$3,114 |
| $1025 (-2%) | -$198 | -$311 | -$610 | -$3,114 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$54 | -$5 | -$192 | -$3,114 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$307 | +$303 | +$239 | -$1,467 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$682 | +$764 | +$888 | +$1,670 |
| $1150 (+10%) | +$1,288 | +$1,504 | +$1,918 | +$4,886 |
| $1170 (+12%) ← target | +$1,508 | +$1,770 | +$2,276 | +$4,886 |
| $1202 (+15%) | +$1,852 | +$2,179 | +$2,804 | +$4,886 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$2,362 | +$2,769 | +$3,500 | +$4,886 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.