Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MU
$1,133.99
๐ŸŸข
MU IV: 88.0% โ€” LOW (-23.3% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1190 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

64d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

SHORT PUT ยท $1040 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $132.35 ยท ฮ” -0.33
P&L at Expiry Now $1134 Target $1190 $794 $1134 $1474
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MU hits $1190 by Aug 21: the cash-secured put returns +$13,235 (14.6%) on $-13,235 credit (max loss $90,765), vs +$5,601 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 3.0ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MU hits $1190 by Aug 21
+$13,235
+14.6% on $90,765 max loss
Max Profit
+$13,235
If the stock โ‰ฅ $1040 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$90,765
If stock โ†’ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$907.65
-19.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
89%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
32.87 / 130.11 / -175.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MU Price Today Jul 9 Jul 30 Aug 21 (exp)
$907 (-20%) -$8,089 -$5,919 -$3,215 -$46
$964 (-15%) -$5,075 -$2,681 +$429 +$5,624
$1021 (-10%) -$2,419 +$122 +$3,480 +$11,294
$1077 (-5%) -$98 +$2,515 +$5,955 +$13,235
$1111 (-2%) +$1,145 +$3,767 +$7,185 +$13,235
$1134 (0%) โ† spot +$1,916 +$4,532 +$7,906 +$13,235
$1157 (+2%) +$2,643 +$5,242 +$8,555 +$13,235
$1190 (+5%) โ† target +$3,634 +$6,194 +$9,387 +$13,235
$1247 (+10%) +$5,144 +$7,600 +$10,523 +$13,235
$1304 (+15%) +$6,417 +$8,735 +$11,344 +$13,235
$1361 (+20%) +$7,499 +$9,657 +$11,934 +$13,235
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.