Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.3% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1220 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1133.99 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1220 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $162.99 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1220 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$24,900 (25.6%) on $97,100 risked, vs +$8,601 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 3.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1220 by Aug 21
+$24,900
+25.6% on $97,100 risked
Max Profit
+$24,900
If the stock โฅ $1220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$97,100
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$971.00
-14.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
47.42 / 153.13 / -191.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$11,184 | -$9,236 | -$7,309 | -$6,381 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$7,244 | -$4,931 | -$2,411 | -$711 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$3,631 | -$990 | +$2,104 | +$4,959 |
| $1077 (-5%) | -$344 | +$2,574 | +$6,168 | +$10,629 |
| $1111 (-2%) | +$1,475 | +$4,530 | +$8,371 | +$14,031 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | +$2,625 | +$5,758 | +$9,739 | +$16,299 |
| $1157 (+2%) | +$3,726 | +$6,927 | +$11,026 | +$18,567 |
| $1191 (+5%) | +$5,289 | +$8,571 | +$12,804 | +$21,969 |
| $1220 (+8%) โ target | +$6,552 | +$9,886 | +$14,194 | +$24,900 |
| $1247 (+10%) | +$7,666 | +$11,032 | +$15,376 | +$24,900 |
| $1304 (+15%) | +$9,774 | +$13,164 | +$17,487 | +$24,900 |
| $1361 (+20%) | +$11,637 | +$14,996 | +$19,185 | +$24,900 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.