Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.7% โ LOW
(-22.9% vs 30d avg of 115.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1080 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1130 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $212.22 ยท ฮ -0.39
SHORT PUT ยท $1080 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $151.55 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1080 by Aug 21: the diagonal put spread returns +$8,532 (140.6%) on $6,067 risked, vs $-5,399 (-4.8%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 29.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1080. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1080 by Aug 21
+$8,532
+140.6% on $6,067 risked
Max Profit
+$8,383
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$2,948
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$1313.95
+15.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
90%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-2.8 / 21.78 / 38.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$60 | +$373 | +$1,014 | +$1,130 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$51 | +$454 | +$1,308 | +$2,629 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$102 | +$442 | +$1,428 | +$4,602 |
| $1080 (-5%) โ target | -$214 | +$331 | +$1,351 | +$7,194 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$295 | +$236 | +$1,229 | +$5,643 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | -$363 | +$152 | +$1,110 | +$4,609 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$437 | +$58 | +$967 | +$3,647 |
| $1191 (+5%) | -$560 | -$103 | +$711 | +$2,335 |
| $1247 (+10%) | -$790 | -$414 | +$202 | +$473 |
| $1304 (+15%) | -$1,046 | -$764 | -$377 | -$1,028 |
| $1361 (+20%) | -$1,319 | -$1,138 | -$987 | -$2,220 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.