Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.3% โ LOW
(-23.0% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1000 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1130 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $178.0 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1000 by Aug 21: the long put returns $-4,800 (-27.0%) on $17,800 risked, vs $-13,399 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1000. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1000 by Aug 21
$-4,800
-27.0% on $17,800 risked
Max Profit
+$95,200
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$17,800
Premium paid
Break-even
$952.00
-16.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-40.46 / -141.81 / 183.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | +$10,136 | +$8,197 | +$6,005 | +$4,481 |
| $964 (-15%) | +$6,626 | +$4,373 | +$1,626 | -$1,189 |
| $1000 (-12%) โ target | +$4,574 | +$2,152 | -$902 | -$4,800 |
| $1021 (-10%) | +$3,466 | +$960 | -$2,247 | -$6,859 |
| $1077 (-5%) | +$643 | -$2,047 | -$5,579 | -$12,529 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$896 | -$3,662 | -$7,317 | -$15,931 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | -$1,860 | -$4,663 | -$8,368 | -$17,800 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$2,776 | -$5,605 | -$9,338 | -$17,800 |
| $1191 (+5%) | -$4,065 | -$6,913 | -$10,644 | -$17,800 |
| $1247 (+10%) | -$5,996 | -$8,828 | -$12,456 | -$17,800 |
| $1304 (+15%) | -$7,680 | -$10,444 | -$13,867 | -$17,800 |
| $1361 (+20%) | -$9,140 | -$11,797 | -$14,945 | -$17,800 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.