Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.0% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 114.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1270 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1133.99 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1270 by Aug 21: the long stock returns +$13,601 (12.0%) on $113,399 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Aug 21.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1270 by Aug 21
+$13,601
+12.0% on $113,399 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$113,399
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$1133.99
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 18 | Aug 17 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$22,680 | -$22,680 | -$22,680 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$17,010 | -$17,010 | -$17,010 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$11,340 | -$11,340 | -$11,340 |
| $1077 (-5%) | -$5,670 | -$5,670 | -$5,670 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$2,268 | -$2,268 | -$2,268 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $1157 (+2%) | +$2,268 | +$2,268 | +$2,268 |
| $1191 (+5%) | +$5,670 | +$5,670 | +$5,670 |
| $1247 (+10%) | +$11,340 | +$11,340 | +$11,340 |
| $1270 (+12%) โ target | +$13,601 | +$13,601 | +$13,601 |
| $1304 (+15%) | +$17,010 | +$17,010 | +$17,010 |
| $1361 (+20%) | +$22,680 | +$22,680 | +$22,680 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.