Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.7% โ LOW
(-22.9% vs 30d avg of 115.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1250 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1133.99 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $1080 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $151.55 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1250 by Aug 21: the protective put returns $-3,554 (-2.8%) on $128,554 risked, vs +$11,601 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1250 by Aug 21
$-3,554
-2.8% on $128,554 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$20,554
Put floors you at $1080
Break-even
$1285.54
+13.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.27 / -138.5 / 179.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$13,602 | -$15,694 | -$18,204 | -$20,554 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$11,170 | -$13,530 | -$16,525 | -$20,554 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$8,382 | -$10,939 | -$14,287 | -$20,554 |
| $1077 (-5%) | -$5,258 | -$7,938 | -$11,481 | -$20,554 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$3,231 | -$5,950 | -$9,535 | -$17,423 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | -$1,820 | -$4,551 | -$8,135 | -$15,155 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$363 | -$3,097 | -$6,656 | -$12,887 |
| $1191 (+5%) | +$1,905 | -$814 | -$4,301 | -$9,485 |
| $1250 (+10%) โ target | +$6,078 | +$3,429 | +$157 | -$3,554 |
| $1304 (+15%) | +$10,105 | +$7,561 | +$4,553 | +$1,855 |
| $1361 (+20%) | +$14,526 | +$12,122 | +$9,432 | +$7,525 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.