Target Price Playground
MU
$1,133.99
๐ข
MU IV: 88.7% โ LOW
(-22.9% vs 30d avg of 115.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1300 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1130 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $195.31 ยท ฮ 0.6
LONG PUT ยท $1130 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $179.0 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1300 by Aug 21: the long straddle returns $-20,431 (-54.6%) on $37,431 risked, vs +$16,601 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $113,399. Options give 3.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1300 by Aug 21
$-20,431
-54.6% on $37,431 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$37,431
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$1504.31
+32.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.21 / -293.47 / 367.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $907 (-20%) | -$2,856 | -$7,048 | -$11,756 | -$15,150 |
| $964 (-15%) | -$4,195 | -$9,013 | -$14,831 | -$20,820 |
| $1021 (-10%) | -$4,837 | -$10,161 | -$16,897 | -$26,490 |
| $1077 (-5%) | -$4,806 | -$10,498 | -$17,883 | -$32,160 |
| $1111 (-2%) | -$4,479 | -$10,324 | -$17,953 | -$35,562 |
| $1134 (0%) โ spot | -$4,138 | -$10,056 | -$17,788 | -$37,032 |
| $1157 (+2%) | -$3,702 | -$9,672 | -$17,459 | -$34,764 |
| $1191 (+5%) | -$2,877 | -$8,885 | -$16,669 | -$31,362 |
| $1247 (+10%) | -$1,070 | -$7,048 | -$14,627 | -$25,692 |
| $1300 (+15%) โ target | +$1,050 | -$4,809 | -$12,015 | -$20,431 |
| $1361 (+20%) | +$3,976 | -$1,655 | -$8,279 | -$14,352 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.