Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 42.0% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.75 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $230 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.63 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $235 by Sep 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,188 (146.3%) on $812 risked, vs +$2,404 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 12.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $235 by Sep 18
+$1,188
+146.3% on $812 risked
Max Profit
+$1,188
If the stock โฅ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$812
Net debit
Break-even
$218.12
+3.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
19.53 / -1.58 / 2.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | -$677 | -$738 | -$798 | -$812 |
| $179 (-15%) | -$567 | -$647 | -$755 | -$812 |
| $190 (-10%) | -$418 | -$500 | -$644 | -$812 |
| $200 (-5%) | -$235 | -$299 | -$434 | -$812 |
| $207 (-2%) | -$115 | -$159 | -$261 | -$812 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | -$32 | -$60 | -$131 | -$716 |
| $215 (+2%) | +$51 | +$40 | +$7 | -$294 |
| $222 (+5%) | +$176 | +$191 | +$218 | +$339 |
| $232 (+10%) | +$375 | +$431 | +$545 | +$1,188 |
| $235 (+11%) โ target | +$427 | +$493 | +$625 | +$1,188 |
| $243 (+15%) | +$554 | +$639 | +$803 | +$1,188 |
| $253 (+20%) | +$706 | +$807 | +$979 | +$1,188 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.