Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 42.0% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $195 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.3 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $185 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$880 (141.9%) on $620 risked, vs $-2,596 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 11.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $185 by Sep 18
+$880
+141.9% on $620 risked
Max Profit
+$880
If the stock โค $195 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$620
Net debit
Break-even
$203.80
-3.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.14 / -0.83 / 5.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | +$646 | +$712 | +$811 | +$880 |
| $179 (-15%) | +$512 | +$573 | +$690 | +$880 |
| $185 (-12%) โ target | +$428 | +$479 | +$586 | +$880 |
| $190 (-10%) | +$353 | +$391 | +$477 | +$880 |
| $200 (-5%) | +$183 | +$187 | +$199 | +$339 |
| $207 (-2%) | +$82 | +$65 | +$27 | -$294 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | -$14 | -$81 | -$620 |
| $215 (+2%) | -$46 | -$89 | -$180 | -$620 |
| $222 (+5%) | -$134 | -$191 | -$308 | -$620 |
| $232 (+10%) | -$262 | -$333 | -$460 | -$620 |
| $243 (+15%) | -$364 | -$438 | -$547 | -$620 |
| $253 (+20%) | -$443 | -$510 | -$590 | -$620 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.