Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 41.4% โ LOW
(-33.6% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.9 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $200 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $200 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$792 (116.5%) on $680 risked, vs $-1,096 (-5.2%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 22.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $200 by Sep 18
+$792
+116.5% on $680 risked
Max Profit
+$788
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$671
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$215.83
+2.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.63 / 1.22 / 7.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | +$263 | +$294 | +$318 | +$275 |
| $179 (-15%) | +$236 | +$285 | +$351 | +$344 |
| $190 (-10%) | +$185 | +$242 | +$342 | +$508 |
| $200 (-5%) โ target | +$113 | +$166 | +$268 | +$804 |
| $207 (-2%) | +$56 | +$99 | +$181 | +$417 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | +$17 | +$52 | +$116 | +$213 |
| $215 (+2%) | -$23 | +$2 | +$45 | +$37 |
| $222 (+5%) | -$85 | -$75 | -$66 | -$176 |
| $232 (+10%) | -$189 | -$203 | -$244 | -$417 |
| $243 (+15%) | -$286 | -$319 | -$391 | -$553 |
| $253 (+20%) | -$373 | -$418 | -$500 | -$623 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.