Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 42.0% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $210.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $200 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.1 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $230 by Sep 18: the protective put returns +$894 (4.0%) on $22,106 risked, vs +$1,904 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $230 by Sep 18
+$894
+4.0% on $22,106 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,106
Put floors you at $200
Break-even
$221.06
+4.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.35 / -9.68 / 34.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | -$1,935 | -$2,032 | -$2,116 | -$2,106 |
| $179 (-15%) | -$1,655 | -$1,813 | -$1,999 | -$2,106 |
| $190 (-10%) | -$1,254 | -$1,459 | -$1,736 | -$2,106 |
| $200 (-5%) | -$727 | -$954 | -$1,272 | -$2,065 |
| $207 (-2%) | -$352 | -$580 | -$894 | -$1,432 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | -$79 | -$303 | -$604 | -$1,010 |
| $215 (+2%) | +$211 | -$6 | -$287 | -$588 |
| $222 (+5%) | +$674 | +$474 | +$231 | +$45 |
| $230 (+9%) โ target | +$1,344 | +$1,172 | +$986 | +$894 |
| $243 (+15%) | +$2,420 | +$2,293 | +$2,183 | +$2,154 |
| $253 (+20%) | +$3,376 | +$3,283 | +$3,219 | +$3,209 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.