Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $220 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$830 (4.4%) on $-830 credit (max loss $18,670), vs +$904 (4.3%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | -$2,058 | -$1,938 | -$1,817 | -$1,793 |
| $179 (-15%) | -$1,333 | -$1,156 | -$933 | -$738 |
| $190 (-10%) | -$737 | -$524 | -$228 | +$316 |
| $200 (-5%) | -$268 | -$45 | +$264 | +$830 |
| $207 (-2%) | -$43 | +$173 | +$463 | +$830 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | +$85 | +$293 | +$561 | +$830 |
| $215 (+2%) | +$197 | +$394 | +$637 | +$830 |
| $220 (+4%) โ target | +$307 | +$490 | +$700 | +$830 |
| $232 (+10%) | +$515 | +$655 | +$787 | +$830 |
| $243 (+15%) | +$632 | +$736 | +$815 | +$830 |
| $253 (+20%) | +$709 | +$782 | +$825 | +$830 |