Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 42.0% โ LOW
(-32.7% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $185 by Sep 18: the long put returns +$1,050 (72.4%) on $1,450 risked, vs $-2,596 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 5.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $185 by Sep 18
+$1,050
+72.4% on $1,450 risked
Max Profit
+$19,550
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,450
Premium paid
Break-even
$195.50
-7.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.02 / -10.26 / 36.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | +$2,704 | +$2,651 | +$2,628 | +$2,673 |
| $179 (-15%) | +$1,845 | +$1,730 | +$1,622 | +$1,618 |
| $185 (-12%) โ target | +$1,424 | +$1,276 | +$1,113 | +$1,050 |
| $190 (-10%) | +$1,089 | +$915 | +$704 | +$564 |
| $200 (-5%) | +$450 | +$232 | -$65 | -$491 |
| $207 (-2%) | +$125 | -$109 | -$435 | -$1,124 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | -$68 | -$307 | -$642 | -$1,450 |
| $215 (+2%) | -$243 | -$483 | -$817 | -$1,450 |
| $222 (+5%) | -$472 | -$707 | -$1,024 | -$1,450 |
| $232 (+10%) | -$776 | -$988 | -$1,247 | -$1,450 |
| $243 (+15%) | -$997 | -$1,174 | -$1,362 | -$1,450 |
| $253 (+20%) | -$1,152 | -$1,291 | -$1,415 | -$1,450 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.