Target Price Playground
NVDA
$210.96
๐ข
NVDA IV: 41.4% โ LOW
(-33.6% vs 30d avg of 62.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.75 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If NVDA hits $245 by Sep 18: the long straddle returns +$375 (12.0%) on $3,125 risked, vs +$3,404 (16.1%) for 100 shares on $21,096. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if NVDA is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if NVDA hits $245 by Sep 18
+$375
+12.0% on $3,125 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,125
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$241.25
+14.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.46 / -22.85 / 72.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| NVDA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $169 (-20%) | +$1,236 | +$1,072 | +$968 | +$998 |
| $179 (-15%) | +$572 | +$285 | +$11 | -$57 |
| $190 (-10%) | +$115 | -$290 | -$771 | -$1,111 |
| $200 (-5%) | -$108 | -$602 | -$1,255 | -$2,166 |
| $207 (-2%) | -$125 | -$650 | -$1,363 | -$2,799 |
| $211 (0%) โ spot | -$90 | -$624 | -$1,353 | -$3,029 |
| $215 (+2%) | -$17 | -$554 | -$1,281 | -$2,607 |
| $222 (+5%) | +$157 | -$370 | -$1,062 | -$1,974 |
| $232 (+10%) | +$604 | +$124 | -$453 | -$919 |
| $243 (+15%) | +$1,217 | +$806 | +$370 | +$135 |
| $245 (+16%) โ target | +$1,376 | +$982 | +$578 | +$375 |
| $253 (+20%) | +$1,961 | +$1,626 | +$1,319 | +$1,190 |
Uses NVDA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.