Target Price Playground
PLTR
$126.79
๐ก
PLTR IV: 57.2% โ NORMAL
(-14.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.08 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.95 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $120 by Sep 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$588 (142.3%) on $413 risked, vs $-679 (-5.4%) for 100 shares on $12,679. Options give 26.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PLTR hits $120 by Sep 18
+$588
+142.3% on $413 risked
Max Profit
+$580
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$383
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$133.87
+5.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
84%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.8 / 1.17 / 4.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | +$117 | +$145 | +$181 | +$143 |
| $108 (-15%) | +$112 | +$150 | +$212 | +$251 |
| $114 (-10%) | +$99 | +$141 | +$220 | +$423 |
| $120 (-5%) โ target | +$79 | +$120 | +$201 | +$651 |
| $124 (-2%) | +$60 | +$98 | +$172 | +$433 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | +$48 | +$83 | +$149 | +$319 |
| $129 (+2%) | +$34 | +$66 | +$124 | +$217 |
| $133 (+5%) | +$13 | +$38 | +$80 | +$85 |
| $139 (+10%) | -$26 | -$12 | +$2 | -$85 |
| $146 (+15%) | -$66 | -$65 | -$78 | -$203 |
| $152 (+20%) | -$106 | -$116 | -$151 | -$283 |
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.