Target Price Playground
PLTR
$126.79
๐ก
PLTR IV: 57.2% โ NORMAL
(-14.4% vs 30d avg of 66.8%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $125 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.55 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.0 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $110 by Sep 18: the bear put spread returns +$545 (119.8%) on $455 risked, vs $-1,679 (-13.2%) for 100 shares on $12,679. Options give 9.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PLTR hits $110 by Sep 18
+$545
+119.8% on $455 risked
Max Profit
+$545
If the stock โค $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$455
Net debit
Break-even
$120.45
-5.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.41 / -0.64 / 3.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | +$309 | +$345 | +$417 | +$545 |
| $108 (-15%) | +$233 | +$259 | +$318 | +$545 |
| $110 (-13%) โ target | +$205 | +$226 | +$276 | +$545 |
| $114 (-10%) | +$154 | +$164 | +$192 | +$545 |
| $120 (-5%) | +$73 | +$67 | +$56 | -$0 |
| $124 (-2%) | +$27 | +$10 | -$25 | -$380 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | -$4 | -$27 | -$75 | -$455 |
| $129 (+2%) | -$34 | -$63 | -$123 | -$455 |
| $133 (+5%) | -$76 | -$113 | -$189 | -$455 |
| $139 (+10%) | -$141 | -$188 | -$278 | -$455 |
| $146 (+15%) | -$198 | -$251 | -$343 | -$455 |
| $152 (+20%) | -$248 | -$302 | -$387 | -$455 |
Uses PLTR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.