Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $135 by Sep 18: the cash-secured put returns +$700 (6.5%) on $-700 credit (max loss $10,800), vs +$821 (6.5%) for 100 shares on $12,679. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 (-20%) | -$1,158 | -$1,007 | -$818 | -$657 |
| $108 (-15%) | -$791 | -$613 | -$373 | -$23 |
| $114 (-10%) | -$480 | -$288 | -$20 | +$611 |
| $120 (-5%) | -$222 | -$27 | +$241 | +$700 |
| $124 (-2%) | -$91 | +$101 | +$358 | +$700 |
| $127 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | +$176 | +$422 | +$700 |
| $129 (+2%) | +$59 | +$242 | +$476 | +$700 |
| $133 (+5%) | +$155 | +$329 | +$539 | +$700 |
| $135 (+6%) โ target | +$197 | +$366 | +$564 | +$700 |
| $139 (+10%) | +$287 | +$442 | +$611 | +$700 |
| $146 (+15%) | +$389 | +$523 | +$653 | +$700 |
| $152 (+20%) | +$468 | +$580 | +$676 | +$700 |