Target Price Playground
SBUX
$100.65
๐ข
SBUX IV: 31.3% โ LOW
(-45.1% vs 30d avg of 56.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $89 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $100 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.87 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $93 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.99 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $89 by Aug 21: the bear put spread returns +$412 (143.4%) on $288 risked, vs $-1,165 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $10,065. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $89. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $89 by Aug 21
+$412
+143.4% on $288 risked
Max Profit
+$412
If the stock โค $93 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$288
Net debit
Break-even
$97.12
-3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.93 / -1.24 / 3.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $81 (-20%) | +$344 | +$372 | +$401 | +$412 |
| $86 (-15%) | +$278 | +$312 | +$362 | +$412 |
| $89 (-12%) โ target | +$217 | +$246 | +$299 | +$412 |
| $91 (-10%) | +$186 | +$211 | +$258 | +$412 |
| $96 (-5%) | +$80 | +$84 | +$93 | +$150 |
| $99 (-2%) | +$16 | +$7 | -$13 | -$152 |
| $101 (0%) โ spot | -$24 | -$41 | -$77 | -$288 |
| $103 (+2%) | -$62 | -$85 | -$132 | -$288 |
| $106 (+5%) | -$113 | -$143 | -$196 | -$288 |
| $111 (+10%) | -$180 | -$212 | -$257 | -$288 |
| $116 (+15%) | -$225 | -$252 | -$279 | -$288 |
| $121 (+20%) | -$254 | -$273 | -$286 | -$288 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.