Target Price Playground
SBUX
$103.67
🟢
SBUX IV: 29.0% — LOW
(-46.1% vs 30d avg of 53.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.7 · Δ 0.48
SHORT CALL · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.95 · Δ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$325 (185.7%) on $175 risked, vs +$1,133 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $10,367. Options give 17.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SBUX is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if SBUX hits $115 by Dec 18
+$325
+185.7% on $175 risked
Max Profit
+$325
If the stock ≥ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
−$175
Net debit
Break-even
$106.75
+2.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
32%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
17.83 / -0.77 / 1.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| SBUX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $83 (-20%) | -$170 | -$174 | -$175 | -$175 |
| $88 (-15%) | -$156 | -$168 | -$174 | -$175 |
| $93 (-10%) | -$124 | -$145 | -$167 | -$175 |
| $98 (-5%) | -$67 | -$91 | -$130 | -$175 |
| $102 (-2%) | -$23 | -$41 | -$78 | -$175 |
| $104 (0%) ← spot | +$10 | -$3 | -$30 | -$175 |
| $106 (+2%) | +$44 | +$38 | +$25 | -$101 |
| $109 (+5%) | +$95 | +$101 | +$112 | +$210 |
| $115 (+11%) ← target | +$186 | +$208 | +$248 | +$325 |
| $119 (+15%) | +$234 | +$259 | +$296 | +$325 |
| $124 (+20%) | +$274 | +$295 | +$318 | +$325 |
Uses SBUX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.